MaintainerPulse

temporal prediction of dependency maintenance risk

toml uiri/toml ▲ high risk

92%
no release in the next 12 months
83%
new issues will go unanswered (30 days)
100%
maintainer activity collapse within 12 months
13%
chance of a release within 12 months (survival model)

Model risk over time

calibrated P(no release next 12mo) at each historical monthly snapshot
0%50%100%2018-012020-072022-122025-06high risk

Repository activity, last 36 months

pushes issues PyPI release
02.552023-072024-042025-022026-04

What drives this score

TreeSHAP contributions; raises risk / lowers risk
days since last release+releases, last 12mo+events, all time+package age (months)-

Survival curve

P(still no release) m months ahead, discrete-time hazard model
0%50%100%036912

In plain words

Signals at the latest snapshot

days since last release 2068 releases, last 12mo 0
people pushing, last 12mo 0 bus factor (top pusher share) -
issues opened, last 12mo 1 30-day response rate 0%
stars accumulated 1071 open vulns without fix 0

Probabilities are isotonic-calibrated on a held-out validation year and evaluated on future snapshots the models never saw (PR-AUC 0.894, precision@50 = 1.00 on the headline target).