MaintainerPulse

temporal prediction of dependency maintenance risk

requests-toolbelt requests/toolbelt ▲ high risk

77%
no release in the next 12 months
54%
new issues will go unanswered (30 days)
100%
maintainer activity collapse within 12 months
13%
chance of a release within 12 months (survival model)

Model risk over time

calibrated P(no release next 12mo) at each historical monthly snapshot
0%50%100%2018-012020-072022-122025-06high risk

Repository activity, last 36 months

pushes issues PyPI release
02.552023-072024-052025-032026-05

What drives this score

TreeSHAP contributions; raises risk / lowers risk
days since last release+releases, last 12mo+package age (months)-stars, all time+

Survival curve

P(still no release) m months ahead, discrete-time hazard model
0%50%100%036912

In plain words

Signals at the latest snapshot

days since last release 1157 releases, last 12mo 0
people pushing, last 12mo 0 bus factor (top pusher share) -
issues opened, last 12mo 0 30-day response rate no issues
stars accumulated 757 open vulns without fix 0

Probabilities are isotonic-calibrated on a held-out validation year and evaluated on future snapshots the models never saw (PR-AUC 0.894, precision@50 = 1.00 on the headline target).